Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Kastelic 58.3% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 86.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 59.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 70.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 67.3%
67.3%
32.7%
Nelson
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Nelson
Kastelic
Last 5: Nelson 1-4 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Kastelic
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
3
Nelson
Kastelic
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
1
Nelson
Kastelic
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
61.2% (340)
-10.5%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
83.3% (6)
-24.7%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
56.0% (141)
-12.6%
On power play, Kastelic has a +24.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Kastelic is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (405).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kastelic
Home
52.3% (621)
60.9% (233)
Away
48.9% (618)
59.1% (254)
By Period
Nelson
Kastelic
P1
48.4%
58.6%
P2
53.5%
58.7%
P3
50.3%
63.1%
OT
41.2%
53.8%
Final 5 min
50.8%
67.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 19:19 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 06:40 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 17:58 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 12:31 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |