Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Kastelic wins 58.7% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 56.5% vs Bjugstad 48.9% (+8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kastelic 64.8%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 94.3%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 86.6%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 83.0%
83.0%
17.0%
Kastelic
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Kastelic
Bjugstad
Last 6: Kastelic 5-1 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Bjugstad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
4
1
Kastelic
Bjugstad
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,613)
48.6% (6,634)
+8.4%
Power Play
80.0% (25)
55.2% (829)
+24.8%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (274)
44.3% (614)
+9.3%
On power play, Kastelic has a +24.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Kastelic is 58.7% vs right-shot opponents (492).
Kastelic shoots right. Bjugstad is 45.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,330).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Bjugstad
Home
58.9% (895)
49.8% (4,020)
Away
55.1% (1,017)
48.1% (4,057)
By Period
Kastelic
Bjugstad
P1
58.5%
49.0%
P2
56.9%
49.1%
P3
55.3%
48.4%
OT
53.8%
61.3%
Final 5 min
59.6%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 05:39 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 02:20 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 03:53 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 03:47 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 1 | 02:09 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |