Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Kastelic wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 55.9% vs Paul 53.4% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 80.3%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 70.1%
Neutral zone
Paul 57.4%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Kastelic
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Kastelic
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Kastelic
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kastelic
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (476)
53.8% (753)
+4.2%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
58.9% (90)
+16.1%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (106)
47.4% (78)
+3.5%
On power play, Kastelic has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Kastelic is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Kastelic shoots right. Paul is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (342).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Paul
Home
64.9% (265)
54.2% (450)
Away
50.5% (325)
53.3% (471)
By Period
Kastelic
Paul
P1
58.5%
58.2%
P2
55.6%
50.6%
P3
56.8%
52.9%
Final 5 min
62.6%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
62.0%▬
62.0%
56.9%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.5%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 19:43 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 09:04 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 1 | 08:53 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 3 | 08:55 | Defensive | Nick Paul |