Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 54.3%). Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kastelic wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 53.5% vs Paul 53.9% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 56.9%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 57.2%
Neutral zone
Paul 50.4%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Kastelic
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Kastelic
Paul
Last 5: Kastelic 2-3 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
2
0
Kastelic
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
3
Kastelic
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (337)
53.1% (710)
+0.3%
Power Play
100.0% (4)
57.3% (199)
+42.7%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
58.0% (69)
+17.0%
On power play, Kastelic has a +42.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Kastelic is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (246).
Kastelic shoots right. Paul is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (355).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Paul
Home
56.2% (162)
56.0% (466)
Away
52.9% (187)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Kastelic
Paul
P1
58.2%
57.2%
P2
58.8%
54.9%
P3
45.4%
51.5%
Final 5 min
59.5%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
54.4%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 12:56 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 09:51 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 09:45 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 09:11 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 1 | 15:25 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |