Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Kastelic wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 58.3% vs Paul 53.3% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 70.6%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 81.9%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 71.8%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 61.0%
61.0%
39.0%
Kastelic
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Kastelic
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Kastelic
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
61.2% (340)
53.2% (327)
+8.0%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
61.4% (57)
+21.9%
Penalty Kill
56.0% (141)
50.0% (32)
+6.0%
On power play, Kastelic has a +21.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Kastelic is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (405).
Kastelic shoots right. Paul is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (113).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Paul
Home
60.9% (233)
54.6% (183)
Away
59.1% (254)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Kastelic
Paul
P1
58.6%
56.3%
P2
58.7%
54.8%
P3
63.1%
52.4%
OT
53.8%
44.4%
Final 5 min
67.5%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
60.0%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 14:53 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 16:13 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 01:52 | Offensive | Nick Paul |