Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 53.4% vs Paul 50.0% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 77.0%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 64.3%
Neutral zone
Paul 51.2%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 63.2%
36.8%
63.2%
Kastelic
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Kastelic
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Kastelic
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (345)
48.8% (666)
+6.6%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
53.8% (65)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (17)
60.0% (55)
-24.7%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +24.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Kastelic is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Kastelic shoots right. Paul is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Paul
Home
50.6% (162)
49.7% (348)
Away
57.4% (204)
50.2% (438)
By Period
Kastelic
Paul
P1
61.5%
51.0%
P2
52.8%
47.4%
P3
50.0%
51.5%
Final 5 min
46.5%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
54.4%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 02:06 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 12:47 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 12:29 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |