Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kastelic wins 58.3% vs right-shot opponents — Suzuki shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 55.9% vs Suzuki 47.5% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Suzuki 58.0%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 93.9%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 72.9%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 83.5%
83.5%
16.5%
Kastelic
Suzuki
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Kastelic
Suzuki
Last 5: Kastelic 4-1 Suzuki
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Suzuki
0
1
Kastelic
Suzuki
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
4
0
Kastelic
Suzuki
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Suzuki
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (476)
47.0% (1,066)
+11.0%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
49.5% (204)
+25.5%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (106)
46.6% (131)
+4.3%
On power play, Kastelic has a +25.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Suzuki shoots right. Kastelic is 58.3% vs right-shot opponents (199).
Kastelic shoots right. Suzuki is 48.2% vs right-shot opponents (396).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Suzuki
Home
64.9% (265)
49.4% (686)
Away
50.5% (325)
45.3% (715)
By Period
Kastelic
Suzuki
P1
58.5%
45.6%
P2
55.6%
46.9%
P3
56.8%
49.8%
Final 5 min
62.6%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Suzuki
62.0%▲
55.5%
47.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 17:41 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 01:08 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 14, 2022 | 2 | 13:06 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Dec 14, 2022 | 1 | 09:19 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 14, 2022 | 1 | 04:07 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |