Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Kastelic wins 58.7% vs right-shot opponents — Suzuki shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 56.5% vs Suzuki 49.3% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Suzuki 67.5%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 94.0%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 69.7%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 80.2%
80.2%
19.8%
Kastelic
Suzuki
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Kastelic
Suzuki
Last 8: Kastelic 6-2 Suzuki
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Suzuki
0
1
Kastelic
Suzuki
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
5
0
Kastelic
Suzuki
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kastelic
Suzuki
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Suzuki
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,613)
49.4% (6,327)
+7.6%
Power Play
80.0% (25)
50.7% (1,338)
+29.3%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (274)
43.6% (456)
+10.0%
On power play, Kastelic has a +29.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Suzuki shoots right. Kastelic is 58.7% vs right-shot opponents (492).
Kastelic shoots right. Suzuki is 52.0% vs right-shot opponents (2,208).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Suzuki
Home
58.9% (895)
51.0% (3,997)
Away
55.1% (1,017)
47.6% (4,124)
By Period
Kastelic
Suzuki
P1
58.5%
48.8%
P2
56.9%
49.1%
P3
55.3%
50.2%
OT
53.8%
44.4%
Final 5 min
59.6%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Suzuki
62.0%▲
55.5%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 19:57 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 17:47 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 17:41 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 01:08 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 14, 2022 | 2 | 13:06 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Dec 14, 2022 | 1 | 09:19 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 14, 2022 | 1 | 04:07 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |