Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kastelic wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Krebs shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 55.9% vs Krebs 45.9% (+11.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kastelic 58.0%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 91.0%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 76.2%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 80.6%
80.6%
19.4%
Kastelic
Krebs
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Kastelic
Krebs
Last 6: Kastelic 4-2 Krebs
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Krebs
0
1
Kastelic
Krebs
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
3
0
Kastelic
Krebs
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kastelic
Krebs
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Krebs
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (476)
45.5% (501)
+12.5%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
50.0% (20)
+25.0%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (106)
37.1% (35)
+13.8%
On power play, Kastelic has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Krebs shoots left. Kastelic is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Kastelic shoots right. Krebs is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (205).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Krebs
Home
64.9% (265)
43.9% (285)
Away
50.5% (325)
46.5% (271)
By Period
Kastelic
Krebs
P1
58.5%
45.4%
P2
55.6%
50.9%
P3
56.8%
39.7%
Final 5 min
62.6%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Krebs
48.0%▲
45.0%
45.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 12:49 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 04:27 | Neutral | Peyton Krebs |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 07:47 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 07:33 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 3 | 12:49 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 1 | 08:51 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |