Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Kastelic wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Krebs shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 56.5% vs Krebs 45.9% (+11.2%)
H2H factor
Kastelic leads 12-9 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Kastelic 59.2%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 91.0%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 80.7%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 77.9%
77.9%
22.1%
Kastelic
Krebs
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
9
(21 meetings)
12
9
Kastelic
Krebs
Last 10: Kastelic 5-5 Krebs
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Krebs
1
6
Kastelic
Krebs
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
8
1
Kastelic
Krebs
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
3
2
Kastelic
Krebs
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Krebs
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,613)
46.0% (2,159)
+11.0%
Power Play
80.0% (25)
52.5% (99)
+27.5%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (274)
38.6% (171)
+15.0%
On power play, Kastelic has a +27.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Krebs shoots left. Kastelic is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,420).
Kastelic shoots right. Krebs is 48.8% vs right-shot opponents (885).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Krebs
Home
58.9% (895)
45.7% (1,182)
Away
55.1% (1,017)
45.8% (1,247)
By Period
Kastelic
Krebs
P1
58.5%
45.9%
P2
56.9%
46.4%
P3
55.3%
44.8%
OT
53.8%
57.1%
Final 5 min
59.6%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Krebs
48.0%▲
45.0%
45.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 09:57 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 3 | 03:55 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 1 | 18:36 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 1 | 11:37 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Mar 27, 2024 | 3 | 19:31 | Defensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Mar 27, 2024 | 3 | 01:49 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Mar 27, 2024 | 2 | 14:00 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 27, 2024 | 1 | 18:05 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 14:38 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 04:52 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 17:51 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 19:58 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 13:22 | Neutral | Peyton Krebs |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 13:14 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 15:06 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 12:49 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 04:27 | Neutral | Peyton Krebs |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 07:47 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 07:33 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 3 | 12:49 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |