Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Kastelic wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Krebs shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 53.5% vs Krebs 46.8% (+8.1%)
H2H factor
Kastelic leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Kastelic 79.2%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 74.6%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 71.7%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 75.1%
75.1%
24.9%
Kastelic
Krebs
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Kastelic
Krebs
Last 10: Kastelic 7-3 Krebs
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Krebs
1
2
Kastelic
Krebs
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
4
1
Kastelic
Krebs
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
2
1
Kastelic
Krebs
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Krebs
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (337)
47.2% (542)
+6.2%
Power Play
100.0% (4)
54.2% (24)
+45.8%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
31.3% (48)
+43.7%
On power play, Kastelic has a +45.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Krebs shoots left. Kastelic is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (246).
Kastelic shoots right. Krebs is 47.7% vs right-shot opponents (256).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Krebs
Home
56.2% (162)
45.5% (312)
Away
52.9% (187)
47.0% (302)
By Period
Kastelic
Krebs
P1
58.2%
46.6%
P2
58.8%
42.7%
P3
45.4%
48.6%
Final 5 min
59.5%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
54.4%
Krebs
48.0%▲
45.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2024 | 3 | 19:31 | Defensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Mar 27, 2024 | 3 | 01:49 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Mar 27, 2024 | 2 | 14:00 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 27, 2024 | 1 | 18:05 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 14:38 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 04:52 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 17:51 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 19:58 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 13:22 | Neutral | Peyton Krebs |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 13:14 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 15:06 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |