Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Kastelic wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 58.3% vs Aho 50.0% (+10.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 91.4%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 61.7%
Neutral zone
Aho 74.2%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 87.9%
12.1%
87.9%
Kastelic
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Kastelic
Aho
Last 5: Kastelic 1-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
3
Kastelic
Aho
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Kastelic
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
61.2% (340)
49.9% (851)
+11.3%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
53.5% (144)
+29.8%
Penalty Kill
56.0% (141)
43.3% (60)
+12.7%
On power play, Kastelic has a +29.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Kastelic is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (405).
Kastelic shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (364).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Aho
Home
60.9% (233)
53.2% (554)
Away
59.1% (254)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Kastelic
Aho
P1
58.6%
49.1%
P2
58.7%
50.8%
P3
63.1%
49.7%
OT
53.8%
58.8%
Final 5 min
67.5%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
60.0%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 10:54 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 08:25 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 12:05 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 11:53 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 13:31 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |