Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 54.1%). Kastelic wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 53.5% vs Aho 53.8% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 70.1%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 68.5%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 52.1%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 50.7%
50.7%
49.3%
Kastelic
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Kastelic
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Kastelic
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
2
0
Kastelic
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (337)
51.2% (785)
+2.2%
Power Play
100.0% (4)
63.8% (213)
+36.2%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
57.9% (57)
+17.1%
On power play, Kastelic has a +36.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Kastelic is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (246).
Kastelic shoots right. Aho is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (406).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Aho
Home
56.2% (162)
54.9% (548)
Away
52.9% (187)
53.3% (507)
By Period
Kastelic
Aho
P1
58.2%
52.8%
P2
58.8%
58.9%
P3
45.4%
50.6%
Final 5 min
59.5%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
54.4%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2024 | 3 | 04:41 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 2 | 13:35 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 1 | 03:38 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 1 | 03:14 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |