Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Kastelic wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 56.5% vs Aho 51.2% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 86.6%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 84.1%
Neutral zone
Aho 59.5%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 69.9%
30.1%
69.9%
Kastelic
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
9
(15 meetings)
6
9
Kastelic
Aho
Last 10: Kastelic 3-7 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
8
Kastelic
Aho
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
2
0
Kastelic
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
3
1
Kastelic
Aho
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,613)
50.1% (6,619)
+6.9%
Power Play
80.0% (25)
58.9% (1,310)
+21.1%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (274)
46.3% (464)
+7.3%
On power play, Kastelic has a +21.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Kastelic is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,420).
Kastelic shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Aho
Home
58.9% (895)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
55.1% (1,017)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
Kastelic
Aho
P1
58.5%
51.1%
P2
56.9%
52.0%
P3
55.3%
50.7%
OT
53.8%
48.9%
Final 5 min
59.6%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 10:54 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 08:25 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 12:05 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 11:53 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 13:31 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 16:29 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2 | 16:37 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 17, 2024 | 3 | 04:41 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 2 | 13:35 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 1 | 03:38 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 1 | 03:14 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 02:20 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 1 | 17:26 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 1 | 03:39 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 2 | 04:13 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |