Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Kastelic wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 55.9% vs Aho 51.2% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 78.7%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 92.8%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 70.3%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 61.5%
61.5%
38.5%
Kastelic
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Kastelic
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Kastelic
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (476)
48.5% (778)
+9.5%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
63.4% (191)
+11.6%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (106)
50.8% (65)
+0.1%
On power play, Kastelic has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Kastelic is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Kastelic shoots right. Aho is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Aho
Home
64.9% (265)
51.3% (530)
Away
50.5% (325)
51.4% (504)
By Period
Kastelic
Aho
P1
58.5%
50.0%
P2
55.6%
51.3%
P3
56.8%
52.1%
Final 5 min
62.6%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 02:20 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 1 | 17:26 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 1 | 03:39 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |