Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kastelic wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 55.9% vs Gourde 49.7% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kastelic 56.7%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 95.2%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 80.4%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 69.0%
69.0%
31.0%
Kastelic
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Kastelic
Gourde
Last 7: Kastelic 6-1 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
4
0
Kastelic
Gourde
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kastelic
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (476)
49.1% (847)
+8.9%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
79.5% (44)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (106)
39.5% (81)
+11.4%
On penalty kill, Kastelic has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Kastelic is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Kastelic shoots right. Gourde is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Gourde
Home
64.9% (265)
50.1% (491)
Away
50.5% (325)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Kastelic
Gourde
P1
58.5%
54.7%
P2
55.6%
45.0%
P3
56.8%
49.4%
Final 5 min
62.6%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 03:01 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 02:55 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 2 | 02:30 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 3 | 18:55 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 3 | 14:12 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 3 | 02:15 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 3 | 02:08 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |