Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Kastelic wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 56.5% vs Gourde 48.2% (+8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kastelic 62.8%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 94.5%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 80.7%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 71.3%
71.3%
28.7%
Kastelic
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Kastelic
Gourde
Last 8: Kastelic 6-2 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
4
1
Kastelic
Gourde
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kastelic
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,613)
48.4% (4,954)
+8.6%
Power Play
80.0% (25)
57.4% (376)
+22.6%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (274)
39.9% (554)
+13.7%
On power play, Kastelic has a +22.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Kastelic is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,420).
Kastelic shoots right. Gourde is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,937).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Gourde
Home
58.9% (895)
49.3% (2,915)
Away
55.1% (1,017)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Kastelic
Gourde
P1
58.5%
49.9%
P2
56.9%
47.4%
P3
55.3%
47.5%
OT
53.8%
37.0%
Final 5 min
59.6%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 12:38 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 03:01 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 02:55 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 2 | 02:30 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 3 | 18:55 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 3 | 14:12 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 3 | 02:15 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 3 | 02:08 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |