Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +14.5% FO% edge overall. Kastelic wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 58.3% vs Gourde 46.0% (+14.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gourde 57.1%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 68.7%
Neutral zone
Gourde 54.1%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 57.1%
42.9%
57.1%
Kastelic
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Kastelic
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Kastelic
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
61.2% (340)
47.2% (654)
+14.0%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
45.0% (20)
+38.3%
Penalty Kill
56.0% (141)
32.2% (87)
+23.8%
On power play, Kastelic has a +38.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Kastelic is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (405).
Kastelic shoots right. Gourde is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (259).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Gourde
Home
60.9% (233)
44.1% (322)
Away
59.1% (254)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Kastelic
Gourde
P1
58.6%
42.4%
P2
58.7%
49.8%
P3
63.1%
44.3%
OT
53.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
67.5%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
60.0%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 12:38 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |