Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.6% vs 46.9%). Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Scheifele shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Scheifele 47.2% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 62.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 63.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 55.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 53.5%
53.5%
46.5%
McDavid
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
McDavid
Scheifele
Last 6: McDavid 4-2 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
0
2
McDavid
Scheifele
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
0
McDavid
Scheifele
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Scheifele
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
46.5% (878)
+1.0%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
48.3% (174)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
50.0% (54)
-3.5%
On penalty kill, Scheifele has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. McDavid is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (211).
McDavid shoots left. Scheifele is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Home / Away
McDavid
Scheifele
Home
50.2% (400)
46.2% (571)
Away
44.7% (365)
47.7% (535)
By Period
McDavid
Scheifele
P1
47.5%
51.9%
P2
48.6%
45.6%
P3
46.7%
43.9%
OT
33.3%
27.3%
Final 5 min
51.3%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 14:31 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 13:52 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 06:04 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 04:12 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |