Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Scheifele wins 42.7% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 47.2% vs Dowd 49.1% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Scheifele 89.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 84.0%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 53.9%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 56.9%
56.9%
43.1%
Scheifele
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Scheifele
Dowd
Last 10: Scheifele 4-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
3
1
Scheifele
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Scheifele
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Scheifele
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (878)
51.7% (644)
-5.2%
Power Play
48.3% (174)
0.0% (2)
+48.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (54)
41.6% (221)
+8.4%
On power play, Scheifele has a +48.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Scheifele is 42.7% vs right-shot opponents (246).
Scheifele shoots right. Dowd is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Dowd
Home
46.2% (571)
48.6% (451)
Away
47.7% (535)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Scheifele
Dowd
P1
51.9%
49.1%
P2
45.6%
47.3%
P3
43.9%
51.4%
OT
27.3%
30.0%
Final 5 min
47.7%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.9%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 09:20 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 06:02 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 03:45 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 03:36 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 18:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 06:17 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 05:52 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 03:39 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 19:11 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 12:13 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |