Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (79% H2H, 33 meetings). Scheifele wins 44.9% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 46.8% vs Dowd 50.7% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 40-38 in 78 meetings
Offensive zone
Scheifele 92.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 82.7%
Neutral zone
Dowd 52.0%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 56.1%
56.1%
43.9%
Scheifele
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
38
-
40
(78 meetings)
38
40
Scheifele
Dowd
Last 10: Scheifele 4-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
26
7
Scheifele
Dowd
33 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
5
22
Scheifele
Dowd
27 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
7
11
Scheifele
Dowd
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (12,036)
52.4% (6,009)
-6.1%
Power Play
50.2% (2,563)
56.1% (164)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (598)
44.1% (1,635)
-2.5%
On even strength, Dowd has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Scheifele is 44.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,377).
Scheifele shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,675).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Dowd
Home
48.9% (7,644)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
44.7% (7,554)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Scheifele
Dowd
P1
48.2%
51.7%
P2
45.6%
50.4%
P3
46.8%
50.3%
OT
42.5%
45.9%
Final 5 min
45.6%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.8%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 09:20 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 06:02 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 03:45 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 03:36 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 18:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 06:17 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 05:52 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 03:39 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 19:11 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 12:13 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 16:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 06:29 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 01:16 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 17:37 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 14:28 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 00:50 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 12:21 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 14:27 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 1 | 07:48 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 3 | 15:06 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |