Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 48.3% vs Paul 53.9% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 72.5%
Defensive zone
Scheifele 63.4%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 65.4%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 67.6%
67.6%
32.4%
Scheifele
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Scheifele
Paul
Last 7: Scheifele 2-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
3
Scheifele
Paul
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
2
1
Scheifele
Paul
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Scheifele
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (1,045)
53.1% (710)
-5.0%
Power Play
48.6% (181)
57.3% (199)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (27)
58.0% (69)
-13.6%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Scheifele is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (892).
Scheifele shoots right. Paul is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (355).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Paul
Home
52.7% (630)
56.0% (466)
Away
43.5% (623)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Scheifele
Paul
P1
50.3%
57.2%
P2
46.8%
54.9%
P3
47.5%
51.5%
OT
36.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.3%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.1%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 14:45 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 03:17 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 10:47 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 07:46 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 00:14 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 22, 2023 | OT | 00:38 | Defensive | Nick Paul |