Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 47.0% vs Sturm 53.6% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 81.6%
Defensive zone
Sturm 80.6%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 53.6%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 54.7%
54.7%
45.3%
Scheifele
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Scheifele
Sturm
Last 9: Scheifele 4-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
4
0
Scheifele
Sturm
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
3
Scheifele
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Scheifele
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (864)
54.6% (271)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (54)
54.4% (90)
-4.4%
On even strength, Sturm has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Scheifele is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (853).
Scheifele shoots right. Sturm is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Sturm
Home
46.2% (571)
53.0% (168)
Away
47.3% (516)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Scheifele
Sturm
P1
51.8%
58.2%
P2
45.5%
53.2%
P3
43.6%
52.3%
OT
27.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
47.7%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
52.0%▲
50.0%
46.7%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 02:09 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 04:53 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 19:57 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 19:45 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 10:46 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 13:31 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 09:58 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 19:12 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 06:33 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |