Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 18 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 46.8% vs Sturm 56.1% (-9.5%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 26-22 in 48 meetings
Offensive zone
Scheifele 80.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 74.5%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 61.7%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 55.4%
55.4%
44.6%
Scheifele
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
26
(48 meetings)
22
26
Scheifele
Sturm
Last 10: Scheifele 4-6 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
15
4
Scheifele
Sturm
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
16
Scheifele
Sturm
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
5
6
Scheifele
Sturm
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (12,036)
57.1% (2,719)
-10.8%
Power Play
50.2% (2,563)
61.3% (62)
-11.1%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (598)
51.0% (498)
-9.4%
On power play, Sturm has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Scheifele is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (10,821).
Scheifele shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Sturm
Home
48.9% (7,644)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
44.7% (7,554)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Scheifele
Sturm
P1
48.2%
56.5%
P2
45.6%
54.9%
P3
46.8%
57.4%
OT
42.5%
60.6%
Final 5 min
45.6%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.8%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 02:09 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 04:53 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 19:57 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 19:45 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 10:46 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 13:31 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 09:58 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 19:12 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 06:33 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 3 | 10:10 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 3 | 04:48 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 2 | 16:59 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 2 | 15:21 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 2 | 15:14 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 2 | 11:24 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 1 | 11:39 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 2 | 18:12 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 2 | 11:19 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 1 | 16:28 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 2 | 02:59 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |