Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 49.5% vs Sturm 57.1% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 75.3%
Defensive zone
Sturm 82.3%
Neutral zone
Sturm 56.4%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 56.7%
43.3%
56.7%
Scheifele
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Scheifele
Sturm
Last 9: Scheifele 4-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
4
0
Scheifele
Sturm
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
5
Scheifele
Sturm
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (981)
62.1% (356)
-13.4%
Power Play
53.2% (250)
75.0% (4)
-21.8%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (37)
38.7% (62)
+4.5%
On power play, Sturm has a +21.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Scheifele is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (925).
Scheifele shoots right. Sturm is 64.3% vs right-shot opponents (143).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Sturm
Home
50.0% (672)
61.8% (191)
Away
48.8% (596)
56.3% (231)
By Period
Scheifele
Sturm
P1
51.4%
58.0%
P2
45.1%
57.9%
P3
51.9%
60.6%
Final 5 min
49.0%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
49.4%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2025 | 3 | 10:10 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 3 | 04:48 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 2 | 16:59 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 2 | 15:21 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 2 | 15:14 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 2 | 11:24 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 1 | 11:39 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 2 | 18:12 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 2 | 11:19 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |