Scouting Report
Mark Scheifele holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Scheifele wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 48.3% vs Roy 47.2% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 74.5%
Defensive zone
Roy 80.1%
Neutral zone
Roy 60.1%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 62.9%
37.1%
62.9%
Scheifele
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Scheifele
Roy
Last 7: Scheifele 2-5 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Scheifele
Roy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
2
4
Scheifele
Roy
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (1,045)
47.5% (617)
+0.6%
Power Play
48.6% (181)
39.6% (53)
+9.0%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (27)
46.4% (97)
-2.0%
On power play, Scheifele has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Scheifele is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (361).
Scheifele shoots right. Roy is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (174).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Roy
Home
52.7% (630)
47.2% (398)
Away
43.5% (623)
46.3% (369)
By Period
Scheifele
Roy
P1
50.3%
48.6%
P2
46.8%
48.8%
P3
47.5%
43.9%
OT
36.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.1%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 16:18 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 10:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 15:24 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 16:34 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |