Scouting Report
Mark Scheifele holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Scheifele wins 46.1% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 49.5% vs Roy 47.9% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 80.9%
Defensive zone
Roy 65.2%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 53.9%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 69.3%
69.3%
30.7%
Scheifele
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Scheifele
Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
2
1
Scheifele
Roy
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
1
0
Scheifele
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (981)
48.6% (679)
+0.1%
Power Play
53.2% (250)
48.0% (50)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (37)
34.7% (49)
+8.5%
On penalty kill, Scheifele has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Scheifele is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (343).
Scheifele shoots right. Roy is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (186).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Roy
Home
50.0% (672)
49.3% (345)
Away
48.8% (596)
46.4% (433)
By Period
Scheifele
Roy
P1
51.4%
47.6%
P2
45.1%
47.1%
P3
51.9%
47.9%
OT
58.3%
75.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
49.4%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 17:24 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 03:44 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 05:10 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 17:09 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |