Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (65% H2H, 17 meetings). Scheifele wins 44.9% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 46.8% vs Roy 48.4% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Roy leads 23-16 in 39 meetings
Offensive zone
Scheifele 79.1%
Defensive zone
Roy 64.9%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 50.2%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Scheifele
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
23
(39 meetings)
16
23
Scheifele
Roy
Last 10: Scheifele 4-6 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
5
6
Scheifele
Roy
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
5
6
Scheifele
Roy
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
6
11
Scheifele
Roy
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (12,036)
48.7% (3,719)
-2.4%
Power Play
50.2% (2,563)
49.5% (283)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (598)
45.5% (477)
-3.9%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Scheifele is 44.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,377).
Scheifele shoots right. Roy is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,191).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Roy
Home
48.9% (7,644)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
44.7% (7,554)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
Scheifele
Roy
P1
48.2%
50.8%
P2
45.6%
46.3%
P3
46.8%
48.1%
OT
42.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.6%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.8%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 02:29 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 17:24 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 03:44 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 05:10 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 17:09 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 16:18 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 10:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 15:24 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 16:34 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 3 | 17:44 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 3 | 12:09 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 11:16 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 07:55 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 30, 2022 | 3 | 08:10 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |