Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Scheifele wins 44.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 48.1% vs Stamkos 53.4% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 70.7%
Defensive zone
Scheifele 70.6%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 68.6%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 70.2%
70.2%
29.8%
Scheifele
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Scheifele
Stamkos
Last 5: Scheifele 1-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Scheifele
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Scheifele
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Scheifele
1
0
Scheifele
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (960)
55.3% (628)
-7.5%
Power Play
47.0% (219)
55.1% (216)
-8.1%
Penalty Kill
60.7% (28)
40.2% (87)
+20.5%
On penalty kill, Scheifele has a +20.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Scheifele is 44.9% vs right-shot opponents (374).
Scheifele shoots right. Stamkos is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Stamkos
Home
50.7% (611)
55.5% (499)
Away
45.1% (596)
51.9% (432)
By Period
Scheifele
Stamkos
P1
51.4%
50.7%
P2
47.3%
53.8%
P3
45.0%
55.9%
OT
53.8%
87.5%
Final 5 min
44.7%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.0%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2023 | 2 | 18:05 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 2 | 17:49 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 18:01 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 17:47 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 11:48 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |