Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.4% vs 49.9%). Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Scheifele wins 46.1% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 49.5% vs Stamkos 49.9% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 59.3%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 54.2%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 56.6%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Scheifele
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Scheifele
Stamkos
Last 5: Scheifele 3-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
3
0
Scheifele
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Scheifele
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (981)
49.3% (670)
-0.6%
Power Play
53.2% (250)
53.7% (121)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (37)
33.3% (3)
+9.9%
On penalty kill, Scheifele has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Scheifele is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (343).
Scheifele shoots right. Stamkos is 42.4% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Stamkos
Home
50.0% (672)
54.0% (400)
Away
48.8% (596)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Scheifele
Stamkos
P1
51.4%
48.6%
P2
45.1%
54.5%
P3
51.9%
45.4%
OT
58.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
49.4%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 15:13 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 14:58 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 03:29 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 1 | 19:36 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 1 | 10:07 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |