Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Scheifele wins 42.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 47.2% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 52.6%
Defensive zone
Scheifele 58.6%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 56.0%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 58.6%
58.6%
41.4%
Scheifele
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Scheifele
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Scheifele
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (878)
56.1% (342)
-9.6%
Power Play
48.3% (174)
53.3% (92)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (54)
62.5% (8)
-12.5%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Scheifele is 42.7% vs right-shot opponents (246).
Scheifele shoots right. Stamkos is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (117).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Stamkos
Home
46.2% (571)
53.4% (208)
Away
47.7% (535)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Scheifele
Stamkos
P1
51.9%
55.6%
P2
45.6%
52.8%
P3
43.9%
59.1%
OT
27.3%
62.5%
Final 5 min
47.7%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.9%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 18:50 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |