Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 47.2% vs Hertl 57.2% (-10.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 89.2%
Defensive zone
Hertl 85.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 88.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 88.7%
11.3%
88.7%
Scheifele
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Scheifele
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
1
0
Scheifele
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Scheifele
2
0
Scheifele
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (878)
58.1% (823)
-11.6%
Power Play
48.3% (174)
56.2% (265)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (54)
62.9% (35)
-12.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Scheifele is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Scheifele shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Hertl
Home
46.2% (571)
59.7% (561)
Away
47.7% (535)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Scheifele
Hertl
P1
51.9%
51.6%
P2
45.6%
63.8%
P3
43.9%
58.6%
OT
27.3%
28.6%
Final 5 min
47.7%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 08:13 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 18:57 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 14:52 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |