Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 31 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 46.8% vs Hertl 54.2% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 70-43 in 113 meetings
Offensive zone
Scheifele 73.3%
Defensive zone
Scheifele 90.2%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 86.6%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 81.8%
81.8%
18.2%
Scheifele
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
43
-
70
(113 meetings)
43
70
Scheifele
Hertl
Last 10: Scheifele 7-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
26
23
Scheifele
Hertl
49 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
7
24
Scheifele
Hertl
31 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
10
23
Scheifele
Hertl
33 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (12,036)
53.8% (8,268)
-7.5%
Power Play
50.2% (2,563)
59.3% (1,975)
-9.1%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (598)
46.3% (806)
-4.7%
On power play, Hertl has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Scheifele is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (10,821).
Scheifele shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Hertl
Home
48.9% (7,644)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
44.7% (7,554)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Scheifele
Hertl
P1
48.2%
53.6%
P2
45.6%
54.1%
P3
46.8%
55.3%
OT
42.5%
46.5%
Final 5 min
45.6%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 08:13 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 18:57 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 14:52 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 17:46 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 13:07 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 16:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 13:00 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 03:15 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 05:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 05:07 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 15:08 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 10:48 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 01:25 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 13:59 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 05:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 03:59 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 03:54 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 03:43 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 3 | 19:03 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |