Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on neutral-zone draws (61% H2H, 67 meetings). Scheifele wins 44.9% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 46.8% vs Seguin 53.6% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Seguin leads 87-71 in 158 meetings
Offensive zone
Scheifele 72.8%
Defensive zone
Scheifele 64.3%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 72.4%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 70.5%
70.5%
29.5%
Scheifele
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
71
-
87
(158 meetings)
71
87
Scheifele
Seguin
Last 10: Scheifele 2-8 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
29
22
Scheifele
Seguin
51 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
16
24
Scheifele
Seguin
40 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
26
41
Scheifele
Seguin
67 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (12,036)
53.7% (8,071)
-7.4%
Power Play
50.2% (2,563)
55.9% (810)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (598)
49.3% (762)
-7.7%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Scheifele is 44.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,377).
Scheifele shoots right. Seguin is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,846).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Seguin
Home
48.9% (7,644)
55.9% (4,759)
Away
44.7% (7,554)
51.4% (4,885)
By Period
Scheifele
Seguin
P1
48.2%
52.8%
P2
45.6%
53.3%
P3
46.8%
54.7%
OT
42.5%
54.7%
Final 5 min
45.6%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.8%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 13:20 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 18:18 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 18:00 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 15:23 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 11:53 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 02:22 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 08:40 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 09:04 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 01:27 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 10:40 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 04:10 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 19:10 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 04:36 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 3 | 02:03 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 15:58 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 03:06 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 1 | 16:57 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 1 | 05:30 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |