Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +13.5% FO% edge overall. McTavish wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 43.3% vs Sturm 55.2% (-13.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 53.3%
Defensive zone
Sturm 69.9%
Neutral zone
Sturm 52.0%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
McTavish
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
McTavish
Sturm
Last 8: McTavish 4-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
McTavish
Sturm
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (675)
56.1% (716)
-13.7%
Power Play
40.5% (42)
67.7% (31)
-27.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
51.1% (133)
-1.1%
On power play, Sturm has a +27.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. McTavish is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (441).
McTavish shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
McTavish
Sturm
Home
41.9% (372)
55.6% (412)
Away
42.8% (353)
56.0% (468)
By Period
McTavish
Sturm
P1
47.2%
59.6%
P2
36.2%
52.0%
P3
43.6%
55.5%
OT
0.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
44.2%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
42.3%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 18:47 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 16:54 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 12:09 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 08:01 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 07:53 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 15:47 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 10:18 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 04:16 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |