Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 49.0% vs Sturm 53.6% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 84.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 69.8%
Neutral zone
McTavish 62.6%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 62.9%
62.9%
37.1%
McTavish
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
McTavish
Sturm
Last 6: McTavish 2-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
McTavish
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McTavish
Sturm
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
McTavish
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (616)
54.6% (271)
-7.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
54.4% (90)
-21.1%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +21.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. McTavish is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (468).
McTavish shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
McTavish
Sturm
Home
52.2% (389)
53.0% (168)
Away
45.1% (335)
56.0% (193)
By Period
McTavish
Sturm
P1
50.0%
58.2%
P2
47.9%
53.2%
P3
49.0%
52.3%
OT
40.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
45.5%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
48.9%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 18:46 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 14:32 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 05:21 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 2 | 13:46 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 2 | 10:19 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1 | 06:43 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |