Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McTavish on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 51.5% vs Sturm 59.0% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
McTavish leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
McTavish 53.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 84.5%
Neutral zone
Sturm 55.9%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 63.1%
36.9%
63.1%
McTavish
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
7
(15 meetings)
8
7
McTavish
Sturm
Last 10: McTavish 4-6 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
6
1
McTavish
Sturm
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
5
McTavish
Sturm
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McTavish
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (725)
60.6% (708)
-9.3%
Power Play
55.8% (113)
61.1% (18)
-5.3%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
56.4% (101)
-27.8%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +27.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. McTavish is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McTavish shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Home / Away
McTavish
Sturm
Home
52.0% (454)
61.6% (451)
Away
51.4% (391)
58.2% (376)
By Period
McTavish
Sturm
P1
51.3%
55.9%
P2
50.4%
58.9%
P3
53.3%
64.6%
OT
50.0%
70.6%
Final 5 min
55.7%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
51.7%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 17:45 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 07:22 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 07:03 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 11:36 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 04:35 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 18:38 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 3 | 19:21 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 3 | 01:20 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 3 | 16:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 3 | 01:02 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 2 | 05:58 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 2 | 02:25 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 1 | 11:04 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 1 | 04:49 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 1 | 04:45 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |