Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McTavish on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 48.7% vs Sturm 56.1% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 16-15 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
McTavish 74.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 71.7%
Neutral zone
McTavish 55.0%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 55.6%
55.6%
44.4%
McTavish
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
16
(31 meetings)
15
16
McTavish
Sturm
Last 10: McTavish 4-6 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
8
4
McTavish
Sturm
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
6
McTavish
Sturm
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
5
6
McTavish
Sturm
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (2,788)
57.1% (2,719)
-8.9%
Power Play
52.6% (435)
61.3% (62)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
34.3% (35)
51.0% (498)
-16.7%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. McTavish is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,155).
McTavish shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
McTavish
Sturm
Home
49.8% (1,678)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
47.4% (1,580)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
McTavish
Sturm
P1
50.0%
56.5%
P2
47.8%
54.9%
P3
48.4%
57.4%
OT
43.5%
60.6%
Final 5 min
49.7%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
48.6%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 18:46 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 14:32 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 05:21 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 2 | 13:46 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 2 | 10:19 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1 | 06:43 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 00:35 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 15:33 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 17:45 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 07:22 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 07:03 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 11:36 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 04:35 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 18:38 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 3 | 19:21 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 3 | 01:20 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 3 | 16:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 3 | 01:02 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 2 | 05:58 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 2 | 02:25 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |