Scouting Report
Mason McTavish holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 50.6% vs Kelly 43.9% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
McTavish 60.7%
Defensive zone
Kelly 86.2%
Neutral zone
Kelly 65.9%
Result
Parker Kelly favored at 61.0%
39.0%
61.0%
McTavish
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
10
(16 meetings)
6
10
McTavish
Kelly
Last 10: McTavish 4-6 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
4
2
McTavish
Kelly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
0
4
McTavish
Kelly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
4
McTavish
Kelly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (769)
44.8% (556)
+6.3%
Power Play
50.6% (178)
0.0% (2)
+50.6%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
36.8% (144)
-8.2%
On power play, McTavish has a +50.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. McTavish is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (665).
McTavish shoots left. Kelly is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (481).
Home / Away
McTavish
Kelly
Home
52.3% (461)
44.8% (368)
Away
49.2% (500)
41.0% (334)
By Period
McTavish
Kelly
P1
51.5%
46.7%
P2
54.0%
48.0%
P3
47.1%
34.8%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
35.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
50.7%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 03:30 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 17:51 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 06:26 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 04:23 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 11:09 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 3 | 17:51 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 3 | 17:28 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 3 | 14:36 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 3 | 11:56 | Offensive | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 3 | 11:42 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 1 | 17:59 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 1 | 12:20 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 1 | 07:33 | Offensive | Parker Kelly |