Scouting Report
Mason McTavish holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 48.7% vs Kelly 41.8% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 10-7 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Kelly 52.4%
Defensive zone
Kelly 83.1%
Neutral zone
Kelly 66.9%
Result
Parker Kelly favored at 64.7%
35.3%
64.7%
McTavish
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
10
(17 meetings)
7
10
McTavish
Kelly
Last 10: McTavish 4-6 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
5
2
McTavish
Kelly
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
0
4
McTavish
Kelly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
4
McTavish
Kelly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (2,788)
41.9% (756)
+6.3%
Power Play
52.6% (435)
0.0% (3)
+52.6%
Penalty Kill
34.3% (35)
37.2% (172)
-2.9%
On power play, McTavish has a +52.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. McTavish is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,155).
McTavish shoots left. Kelly is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (626).
Home / Away
McTavish
Kelly
Home
49.8% (1,678)
42.5% (475)
Away
47.4% (1,580)
39.3% (456)
By Period
McTavish
Kelly
P1
50.0%
42.4%
P2
47.8%
44.7%
P3
48.4%
35.7%
OT
43.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.7%
35.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
48.6%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
40.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 11:40 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 03:30 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 17:51 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 06:26 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 04:23 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 11:09 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 3 | 17:51 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 3 | 17:28 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 3 | 14:36 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 3 | 11:56 | Offensive | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 3 | 11:42 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 1 | 17:59 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 1 | 12:20 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 1 | 07:33 | Offensive | Parker Kelly |