Scouting Report
Mason McTavish holds a +12.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 49.0% vs Kelly 41.6% (+12.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 78.0%
Defensive zone
McTavish 57.1%
Neutral zone
McTavish 64.3%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 78.0%
78.0%
22.0%
McTavish
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
McTavish
Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
1
0
McTavish
Kelly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (616)
36.3% (157)
+11.3%
Power Play
57.8% (102)
0.0% (1)
+57.8%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
45.5% (11)
-12.2%
On power play, McTavish has a +57.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. McTavish is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (468).
McTavish shoots left. Kelly is 37.7% vs left-shot opponents (106).
Home / Away
McTavish
Kelly
Home
52.2% (389)
35.9% (78)
Away
45.1% (335)
37.4% (91)
By Period
McTavish
Kelly
P1
50.0%
34.3%
P2
47.9%
36.0%
P3
49.0%
40.4%
Final 5 min
45.5%
37.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
48.9%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
36.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 11:40 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |