Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 48.7% vs Kuraly 50.3% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
McTavish leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
McTavish 74.0%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 83.9%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 53.4%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 59.8%
40.2%
59.8%
McTavish
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
McTavish
Kuraly
Last 10: McTavish 5-5 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
2
1
McTavish
Kuraly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
4
McTavish
Kuraly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
3
0
McTavish
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (2,788)
51.5% (5,141)
-3.3%
Power Play
52.6% (435)
56.0% (100)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
34.3% (35)
44.2% (1,086)
-9.9%
On penalty kill, Kuraly has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. McTavish is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,155).
McTavish shoots left. Kuraly is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (4,102).
Home / Away
McTavish
Kuraly
Home
49.8% (1,678)
51.9% (3,187)
Away
47.4% (1,580)
48.7% (3,141)
By Period
McTavish
Kuraly
P1
50.0%
51.1%
P2
47.8%
49.9%
P3
48.4%
50.0%
OT
43.5%
52.3%
Final 5 min
49.7%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
48.6%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 07:39 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 04:48 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 08:23 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 02:44 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 09:25 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 1 | 08:54 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 1 | 08:47 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 16:15 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 01:54 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 17:18 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 16:49 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |