Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 48.9% vs Kuraly 50.3% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
McTavish leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
McTavish 74.0%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 81.7%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 52.4%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 58.5%
41.5%
58.5%
McTavish
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
McTavish
Kuraly
Last 10: McTavish 5-5 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
2
1
McTavish
Kuraly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
4
McTavish
Kuraly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
3
0
McTavish
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
48.4% (2,704)
51.5% (5,067)
-3.1%
Power Play
52.7% (421)
56.0% (100)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
34.3% (35)
44.0% (1,063)
-9.7%
On penalty kill, Kuraly has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. McTavish is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (2,090).
McTavish shoots left. Kuraly is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (4,037).
Home / Away
McTavish
Kuraly
Home
50.2% (1,592)
51.7% (3,152)
Away
47.5% (1,568)
48.7% (3,079)
By Period
McTavish
Kuraly
P1
50.3%
50.8%
P2
48.1%
50.0%
P3
48.4%
49.9%
OT
43.5%
54.8%
Final 5 min
50.2%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
48.0%▼
51.5%
48.9%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
53.5%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 07:39 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 04:48 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 08:23 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 02:44 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 09:25 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 1 | 08:54 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 1 | 08:47 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 16:15 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 01:54 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 17:18 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 16:49 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |