Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +19.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Barzal 41.4% (+19.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 78.1%
Defensive zone
Barzal 67.5%
Neutral zone
Barzal 71.2%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 70.2%
29.8%
70.2%
Matthews
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Matthews
Barzal
Last 8: Matthews 3-5 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
1
Matthews
Barzal
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Matthews
Barzal
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
2
Matthews
Barzal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
40.4% (463)
+19.4%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
34.2% (38)
+30.7%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
28.6% (7)
+27.7%
On power play, Matthews has a +30.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Barzal is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (393).
Home / Away
Matthews
Barzal
Home
60.0% (520)
38.1% (244)
Away
59.3% (452)
41.3% (264)
By Period
Matthews
Barzal
P1
60.2%
46.6%
P2
58.2%
35.7%
P3
60.4%
37.7%
OT
70.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 08:14 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 19:11 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 17:05 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 11:21 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 06:22 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 10:50 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |