Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 46.9% vs Dowd 53.3% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 81.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 86.2%
Neutral zone
Dowd 67.6%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 55.4%
55.4%
44.6%
Barzal
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Barzal
Dowd
Last 9: Barzal 5-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
5
0
Barzal
Dowd
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Barzal
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Barzal
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (483)
55.4% (771)
-8.8%
Power Play
40.9% (22)
57.1% (7)
-16.2%
On power play, Dowd has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Barzal is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Barzal shoots right. Dowd is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (322).
Home / Away
Barzal
Dowd
Home
49.6% (242)
58.2% (462)
Away
43.3% (263)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Barzal
Dowd
P1
42.4%
55.6%
P2
49.5%
50.5%
P3
47.7%
53.9%
OT
0.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
40.2%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
46.3%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2022 | 3 | 15:17 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 07:24 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 18:04 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 2 | 01:47 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 1 | 02:15 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 08:32 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 04:01 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 03:51 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 01:18 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |