Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 12 meetings). Barzal wins 42.1% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.2% vs Dowd 50.7% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 35-19 in 54 meetings
Offensive zone
Barzal 97.7%
Defensive zone
Barzal 82.1%
Neutral zone
Barzal 93.7%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 92.5%
92.5%
7.5%
Barzal
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
35
(54 meetings)
19
35
Barzal
Dowd
Last 10: Barzal 2-8 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
13
6
Barzal
Dowd
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
12
Barzal
Dowd
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
6
17
Barzal
Dowd
23 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,565)
52.4% (6,009)
-10.5%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
56.1% (164)
-12.7%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
44.1% (1,635)
-1.8%
On power play, Dowd has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Barzal is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,097).
Barzal shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,675).
Home / Away
Barzal
Dowd
Home
43.1% (1,895)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
40.9% (1,901)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Barzal
Dowd
P1
40.7%
51.7%
P2
44.4%
50.4%
P3
41.0%
50.3%
OT
27.6%
45.9%
Final 5 min
39.9%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.0%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 04:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:12 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:02 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 10:49 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 3 | 15:17 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 07:24 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 18:04 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 2 | 01:47 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 1 | 02:15 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 08:32 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 04:01 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 03:51 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 01:18 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 3 | 17:56 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 3 | 17:43 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 3 | 06:35 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 3 | 02:19 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 1 | 10:30 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 1 | 16:05 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 3 | 01:13 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |