Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 42.6% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.4% vs Dowd 49.1% (-9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 94.5%
Defensive zone
Barzal 61.3%
Neutral zone
Barzal 75.4%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 77.9%
77.9%
22.1%
Barzal
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Barzal
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Barzal
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Barzal
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (463)
51.7% (644)
-11.3%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
0.0% (2)
+34.2%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
41.6% (221)
-13.0%
On power play, Barzal has a +34.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Barzal is 42.6% vs right-shot opponents (115).
Barzal shoots right. Dowd is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Barzal
Dowd
Home
38.1% (244)
48.6% (451)
Away
41.3% (264)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Barzal
Dowd
P1
46.6%
49.1%
P2
35.7%
47.3%
P3
37.7%
51.4%
OT
0.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
40.5%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 04:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:12 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:02 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 10:49 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |