Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +12.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Barzal wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 39.3% vs McLeod 48.4% (-12.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 72.9%
Defensive zone
McLeod 77.5%
Neutral zone
McLeod 53.7%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 59.6%
40.4%
59.6%
Barzal
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Barzal
McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Barzal
McLeod
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
2
1
Barzal
McLeod
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
35.0% (283)
49.0% (500)
-14.0%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
43.8% (48)
+11.8%
On even strength, McLeod has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Barzal is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (210).
Barzal shoots right. McLeod is 44.3% vs right-shot opponents (228).
Home / Away
Barzal
McLeod
Home
37.0% (138)
50.9% (291)
Away
34.4% (154)
45.6% (307)
By Period
Barzal
McLeod
P1
29.5%
44.3%
P2
44.5%
52.4%
P3
31.8%
47.8%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
39.1%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
35.6%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2023 | 1 | 09:26 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 16:56 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 18:02 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 10:18 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |