Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 38.9% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.4% vs McLeod 47.8% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 73.0%
Defensive zone
McLeod 92.2%
Neutral zone
McLeod 83.4%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 81.0%
19.0%
81.0%
Barzal
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Barzal
McLeod
Last 5: Barzal 4-1 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
2
0
Barzal
McLeod
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
McLeod
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Barzal
McLeod
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (463)
49.2% (796)
-8.8%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
44.8% (87)
-10.6%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
43.3% (263)
-14.7%
On penalty kill, McLeod has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Barzal is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (393).
Barzal shoots right. McLeod is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (398).
Home / Away
Barzal
McLeod
Home
38.1% (244)
49.2% (575)
Away
41.3% (264)
45.9% (571)
By Period
Barzal
McLeod
P1
46.6%
52.8%
P2
35.7%
45.1%
P3
37.7%
45.6%
OT
0.0%
35.7%
Final 5 min
40.5%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 06:00 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 05:51 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 00:41 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 16:42 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 06:46 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |