Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Lowry wins 59.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 57.0% vs Duchene 54.9% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 82.4%
Defensive zone
Lowry 68.0%
Neutral zone
Duchene 64.5%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 59.9%
40.1%
59.9%
Lowry
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
11
(16 meetings)
5
11
Lowry
Duchene
Last 10: Lowry 5-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
4
Lowry
Duchene
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
2
Lowry
Duchene
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
5
Lowry
Duchene
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (843)
55.4% (1,013)
+3.2%
Power Play
65.0% (20)
56.3% (192)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (253)
41.2% (17)
+12.6%
On penalty kill, Lowry has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Lowry is 59.3% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Lowry shoots left. Duchene is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (823).
Home / Away
Lowry
Duchene
Home
61.0% (602)
56.2% (642)
Away
53.7% (514)
54.3% (580)
By Period
Lowry
Duchene
P1
57.3%
56.2%
P2
58.1%
56.5%
P3
57.4%
52.9%
OT
50.0%
64.3%
Final 5 min
61.4%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.6%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2019 | 3 | 14:01 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 3 | 02:33 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 2 | 19:16 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 2 | 18:48 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 2 | 02:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 1 | 01:38 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 3 | 16:04 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 3 | 15:56 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 3 | 15:46 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 3 | 02:35 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 2 | 05:47 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 2 | 05:39 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 1 | 12:21 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 1 | 09:17 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 1 | 05:57 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |