Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +14.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Schwartz wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schwartz 48.8% vs Duchene 61.5% (-14.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schwartz 81.5%
Defensive zone
Schwartz 62.2%
Neutral zone
Schwartz 77.3%
Result
Jaden Schwartz favored at 65.4%
65.4%
34.6%
Schwartz
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
6
(6 meetings)
0
6
Schwartz
Duchene
Last 6: Schwartz 0-6 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Schwartz
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
5
Schwartz
Duchene
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schwartz
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (101)
62.2% (802)
-12.7%
Power Play
40.7% (27)
67.3% (153)
-26.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (12)
59.4% (143)
-9.4%
On power play, Duchene has a +26.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Schwartz is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (84).
Schwartz shoots left. Duchene is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Schwartz
Duchene
Home
51.4% (72)
66.5% (555)
Away
44.1% (68)
58.6% (543)
By Period
Schwartz
Duchene
P1
48.6%
63.2%
P2
47.7%
59.6%
P3
47.3%
65.0%
OT
50.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
54.1%
65.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schwartz
58.0%▲
53.5%
47.9%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
62.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2017 | OT | 04:17 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 31, 2017 | 2 | 17:33 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 31, 2017 | 1 | 19:23 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 21, 2017 | 2 | 09:37 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 5, 2017 | 1 | 19:22 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 6, 2016 | 2 | 04:40 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |